Is an Independent Presidential Debate Possible?

Newsmax reported on August 15 that:

More than half of likely voters nationwide - 55% - want Republican-turned-Libertarian Bob Barr to participate in presidential debates this fall, while nearly half - 46% - said they think Ralph Nader should be allowed into the on-stage fray, the latest Zogby Interactive polling shows.

In reality, it’s unlikely that this will happen (example in link). And that’s a shame, especially considering that:

• The overwhelming majority of voters (approximately 70%, depending on the poll) disapprove of the job that Congress is doing (Source: PollingReport.com). The polls indicate that this disapproval is pretty much across the board for both Democrats and Republicans.
• The overwhelming majority of voters disapprove of the job that George Bush is doing (at a glance, the average appears to be around 64%). (Source: PollingReport.com)
• Since March of 2008, less than 20% of Americans feel the country is on the right track. (Source: PollingReport.com)
• In 2004, which brought the highest voter turnout since 1968, only 60% of eligible voters actually voted. (Source: MSNBC.com)
• Two-thirds of non-voters say they won’t vote because they believe that special interests control elections. (Source: About - US Government Information)

The 15% Factor

The only way to get Barr, Nader, Baldwin, McKinney or any other third party candidate into the presidential debates is if they have a 15% showing in the polls. This is extremely difficult, given the lack of media attention they receive in comparison to the mainstream choices of McCain or Obama.

The Solution

Here’s an informal, “what do you think” scenario.

I’m not even sure if it’s legal with campaign laws the way they are, but it seems to me that that only way there will be a fair debate where all viewpoints are considered would be to host our own, called “The People’s Debate” or “Real Choices” or something like that. Maybe CSPAN would run it or we would have to buy “Infomercial” time.

All presidential candidates would be invited. If McCain and Obama refused to participate, then we could use posters of them or, since the debates are so close to Halloween, we can have carved jack-o-lantern pumpkins at their seats and play their soundbytes for answers. Moderators would be need to be chosen; probably more “mainstream media” personalities would be the best so people would take this seriously. Although he’s not “mainstream,” I’d personally love to see someone like Ron Paul be one of the moderators.

To get publicity, we’d have to buy print and airtime during or immediately before/after the “official” debates, when interested voters will be tuned in. The presidential debates are scheduled as follows:

• September 29: Presidential Domestic Policy Debate, Ole Miss, Jim Lehrer moderating (PBS)
• October 2: VP Debate, Wash U, St. Louis, Gwen Ifill moderating (PBS)
• October 7: Second Presidential Debate (town hall style), Blemont U, Nashville, Tom Brokaw moderating
• October 15: Third Presidential Debate, Foreign Policy, Hofstra U, NY, Bob Schieffer moderating (CBS)

Obviously, we’d need to get all the candidates to participate. If we pulled this off, it seems like it would be best to do it around October 15, so we can use sound bytes if necessary.

Besides promoting the TV schedule for the debate, we’d need to have it available on YouTube and probably on DVDs for people who have no access to television cable or YouTube. This would have to be announced in the ad; perhaps by creating a website devoted to the “People’s Debates” or whatever it will be called.

The Costs

I haven’t researched this thoroughly, but on a “guestimate” level based on around six hours of research today, we’re looking at around $13,630,000. Some of the costs of overstated.

• A 60-minute infomercial - It’s hard to find a specific price; some sites refer to prime cable station infomercial air time at $40,000 for 30 minutes. Let’s estimate $2 million.
• Costs of Production - A ballpark figure for flying the candidates in, renting a studio or conference hall, having the debate filmed and edited and paying for moderators - Ballpark figure, let’s estimate $1 million.
• Creation of a great television ad - Around $15,000
• Prime time TV commercials announcing our debate - run 3 each either during or right before or after the media-sponsored presidential debates (9 x around $400,000 for each 30-second spot = $3.6 million - let’s estimate $5 million to be on the safe side).
• A guestimate on radio ads and production, again around each of the 3 mainstream debates: $4 million
• Full page ad in USA Today’s full circulation, running Monday through Thursday and on Friday leading up to our debate: Approximately $615,000 (See rate sheet)
• Production and mailing of free DVDs of the campaign: Let’s guess around $2.00 per DVD (with artwork) and mailing costs of $0.50 each, estimated fulfillment, around 400,000 requests = $1 million
• Staff, transaction fees, a “cushion” for unanticipated costs - $1 million
• Send out tons of press releases - free
  

Contribution Levels

We’d get really close to this budget with 500,000 people contributing $25 each ($12,500,000). Approximately 40% of American voters claim to be independents; surely, it’s possible to get half a million or even a million contributions if a lot of us promoted a “money bomb.” There’s a lot of legalities involved, such as a trustee to handle the funds, getting a good marketing firm and so forth. Another thing to consider would be if we couldn’t raise enough funds. Perhaps if the funds are held in trust, they would be reimbursed if the debate did not happen. Or maybe there could be an alternative, cheaper form of debate. We’d probably need to consult with a lawyer about this.

With the power of the Internet and grassroots word-of-mouth, who knows, maybe it’s doable. This would benefit all of the third party candidates, not just Barr or Nader. But it would take a heck of a lot of work. I’m very curious as to whether people think this can be done.

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